Author:
Abstract:
Using the methods of predictive analysis, the author makes an attempt to identify the main directions and extent of the impact of demographic factors on the socio-economic development of African countries until 2060, the Centenary of the Year of Africa. The article provides a detailed analysis of the demographic imbalances existing on the continent that directly affect the economic, social and political development of the African countries. To understand the roots of the basic structural imbalances in the region, it is necessary to take into account the specifics of the processes of reproduction and employment of the population in Africa. The author proves that demographic imbalances are one of the key factors that form structural disproportions in the economies of the continent, primarily from the point of view of approaching equilibrium points in the use of labor resources.
The author argues that indicators of the share of young ages in the general composition of the population are crucial for identifying imbalances for African countries. They are important in two aspects: as an indicator that determines the share of social expenditures in the state’s fiscal balance, and as a predictor of social tension in a society related to youth employment and its relationship with the authorities.
Keywords:
Prognostics, demographic processes, Africa, structural imbalances, demographic dividend, social development, economic growth, youth bulge, life expectancy, dependency ratio, pension ratio
References:
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