A predictive analysis of the role of the demographic dividend in overcoming structural imbalances of the socioeconomic development in Africa (2015–2060)

Author:

Leonid Fituni

Abstract:

Using the methods of predictive analysis, the author makes an attempt to identify the main directions and extent of the impact of demographic factors on the socio-economic development of African countries until 2060, the Centenary of the Year of Africa. The article provides a detailed analysis of the demographic imbalances existing on the continent that directly affect the economic, social and political development of the African countries. To understand the roots of the basic structural imbalances in the region, it is necessary to take into account the specifics of the processes of reproduction and employment of the population in Africa. The author proves that demographic imbalances are one of the key factors that form structural disproportions in the economies of the continent, primarily from the point of view of approaching equilibrium points in the use of labor resources.

The author argues that indicators of the share of young ages in the general composition of the population are crucial for identifying imbalances for African countries. They are important in two aspects: as an indicator that determines the share of social expenditures in the state’s fiscal balance, and as a predictor of social tension in a society related to youth employment and its relationship with the authorities.

Keywords:

Prognostics, demographic processes, Africa, structural imbalances, demographic dividend, social development, economic growth, youth bulge, life expectancy, dependency ratio, pension ratio

References:

9th African Union Gender Pre-Summit on Harnessing the Demographic Dividend through Investments in Youth: Empowering Young People, Empowering Young Women. 24–25 January 2017. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Abramova I.O. (2007). Afrikanskaya migratsiya: regional’nyy vopros ili global’naya problema? [African migration: a regional issue or a global problem?] // Problemy sovremennoy ekonomiki. [Problems of the modern economy]. № 4. Pp. 86-94.
Abramova I.O. (2009) Afrikanskaya migratsiya: opyt sistemnogo analiza. [Afrikanskaya [African migra-tion: An experiment in system analysis]. Institute of Africa, Russian Academy of Sciences. Moscow/
Abramova I.O. (2009a). Afrika: sotsial’no-ekonomicheskaya mobil’nost’ naseleniya i problemy obrazovaniya. [Africa: socio-economic mobility of the population and the problems of education]. // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. [Asia and Africa today]. 2009. № 8 (625). Pp. 40-45.
Abramova I. (2009b) Denezhnyye perevody migrantov: rol’ v sotsial’no-ekonomicheskom razvitii Afriki [Money transfers of migrants: a role in the social and economic development of Africa]. // Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnyye otnosheniya. [World economy and international relations]. 2009. № 7. P. 82-90.
Abramova I.O. (2010) Naseleniye Afriki v novoy global’noy ekonomike. [The population of Africa in the new global economy]. Moscow: Inafr.
Abramova I.O. (2011). Razvivayushchiyesya strany v mirovoy ekonomike XXI veka: novyye demo-graficheskiye determinanty [Developing countries in the world economy of the XXI century: new demographic determinants] // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. [Asia and Africa today]. № 6. Pp. 23-29.
Abramova I.O. (2014). «Demograficheskiy dividend» i budushcheye Afriki. [“Demographic dividend” and the future of Africa]. // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. [Asia and Africa today]. No. 11 (688). Pp. 23-30.
Abramova I.O. Rynok truda v stranakh Afriki: kolichestvennyye i kachestvennyye kharakteristiki [The Labor Market in African Countries: quantitative and qualitative characteristics] // Problemy sovremennoy ekonomiki. [Problems of the Modern Economy].2013. № 4 (48). Pp. 128-134.
Actual questions of the historiography of the international youth movement. Moscow, 1977.[Current ques-tions of the historiography of the international youth movement], Moscow, 1977.
Agbor, J., Taiwo, O., Smith, J. (2012) Sub-saharan Africa’s Youth Bulge: A demographic dividend or disas-ter? Foresight Africa: Top priorities for the continent in 2012. Brookings institution. Africa growth initiative. 2012.
Bloom, D., Canning, D., Fink, G., Finlay, J. (2007) Realizing the Demographic Dividend: is Africa any dif-ferent? Working paper series, Program on global demography of aging. May 2007.
Creating and Capitalizing on the Demographic Dividend for Africa. UN Economic Commission for Africa. Abidjan. 2013.
Fituni L.L. (2010). Ekonomika Afriki: vyzovy postkrizisnogo razvitiya. Stat’ya 1. [The economy of Africa: The challenges of post-crisis development. Article 1.] // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. [Asia and Africa today]. № 8. Pp. 46–54.
Fituni L.L. (2010). Ekonomika Afriki: vyzovy postkrizisnogo razvitiya. Stat’ya 2. Real’nyy sektor vchera, segodnya, zavtra. [The economy of Africa: the challenges of post-crisis development. Article 2. Real sector yes-terday, today, tomorrow] // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. [Asia and Africa today]. № 9. Pp. 8-14.
Fituni L.L. (2011). Mesto Afriki v postkrizisnoy mirovoy ekonomike. [Africa’s place in the post-crisis world economy.] // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. [Asia and Africa today]. № 1. Pp. 15-20.
Fituni L.L. (2012) Predposylki arabskikh revolyutsiy: demograficheskiy aspekt [Prerequisites of the Arab Revolutions: Demographic aspect]// in: Demograficheskoye razvitiye: vyzovy globalizatsii. Sed’myye Valen-teyevskiye chteniya Materialy mezhdunarodnoy konferentsii, posvyashchennoy 90-letiyu so dnya rozhdeniya professora D.I. Valenteya i 45-letiyu so dnya osnovaniya kafedry narodonaseleniya MGU imeni M.V. Lomono-sova. [Demographic Development: Challenges of Globalization. The Seventh Valentine Readings Proceedings of the international conference dedicated to the 90th anniversary of Professor D.I. Valentey and the 45th anni-versary of the founding of the Department of Population of the Lomonosov Moscow State University]. Lomonosov Moscow State University. (MGU) 2012. P. 646-648.
Fituni L.L. (2013). Smena modeley mirovogo razvitiya i global’noye upravleniye v tsivilizatsionnom izme-renii. [Change of patterns of world development and global governance in the civilizational dimension.] // Vos-tok. Afro-Aziatskiye obshchestva: istoriya i sovremennost’. [Oriens. Afro-Asian societies: history and moderni-ty]. № 4. Pp 18-29.
Grishina N.V. Nekotoryye aspekty emigratsii iz afrikanskikh stran v kontekste ugrozy rasprostraneniya mezhdunarodnogo terrorizma. [Some aspects of emigration from African countries in the context of the threat of the spread of international terrorism]. // in: Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskiye problemy razvivayushchikhsya stran v strategii i taktike mezhdunarodnogo terrorizma. [Socio-economic problems of developing countries in the strategy and tactics of international terrorism].//Moscow, 2011. Pp. 104-127.
Korotayev A.V. (2014) O “demograficheskom dividende” kak faktore uskorennykh tempov rosta sred-nerazvitykh stran. In: Mirovaya dinamika: zakonomernosti, tendentsii, perspektivy Akayev A.A., Korotayev A.V., Malkov S.YU. Rossiyskaya akademiya nauk, Institut vostokovedeniya, MGU im. M. V. Lomonosova [On the “demographic dividend” as a factor of accelerated growth rates of the average developed countries. In the collection: World Dynamics: Regularities, Trends]. Moscow, 2014. P. 264-273.
Krylova N.L. (1990) Afrikanskoye studenchestvo: nekotoryye osobennosti obshchestvenno-politicheskogo soznaniya [African students: some features of socio-political consciousness] // In the collection: Sovremennaya Afrika: itogi i perspektivy razvitiya. Ideologiya i kul’tura.[ Modern Africa: the results and prospects for devel-opment. Ideology and Culture] Moscow. P. 106-112.
Krylova N.L., V.L. Chertkov, K.A. Yusten’yants. (1983). Studenchestvo Afriki, [Studenthood of Africa], Moscow.
Ksenofontova N.A. (1999) Afrikanki. Gendernyy aspekt obshchestvennogo razvitiya. [African women. Gender aspect of social development]. Moscow, 2015.
Ksenofontova N.A. Gendernyye issledovaniya v kontekste global’nykh problem sovremennosti // Afrika v usloviyakh smeny paradigmy mirovogo razvitiya [Gender Studies in the Context of the Global Problems of the Present] // Africa in the Context of the Changing Paradigm of World Development. XII Conference of African-ists. Institute of African Studies, RAS. 2011. P. 123-124.
Madsen, E. L. The Missing links in the demographic dividend. New Security Beat. Woodrow Wilson inter-national center for scholars’ environmental change and security program. March 9, 2012. http://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2012/03/the-missing-links-in-the-demographic-dividend/
Rybalkina I.G. (1993). Deti v Afrike: sotsiodemograficheskiy aspekt. [Children in Africa: sociodemo-graphic aspect]. Moscow