Posted on by Katerina

The Impact of Internal War on Tourism and Hospitality Industry: The case of Lalibela Town of Ethiopia

Author:

Malkina M.Yu.1, Mulaw S.G.1

Affiliation:

1. Department of Economic Theory and Methodology, Institute of Economics, Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation

Abstract:

This article examines the impact of internal wars and civil conflicts on the tourism and hospitality industries using the town of Lalibela, Ethiopia, as a case study. Based on literature review and factual data, this article provides a detailed analysis of the impact of internal wars on tourism and the hospitality industry globally, in Africa, and in Ethiopia and its regions. Lalibela is world-renowned for its rock-hewn churches that are UNESCO World Heritage Sites and a magnet for tourists and religious pilgrims from around the world. Tourism is the backbone of Lalibela’s economy, and its development is crucial to the town’s well-being. The crisis in the town’s tourism industry began with the 2020 pandemic and was further exacerbated by a series of internal civil wars in Ethiopia. To examine the impact of war on hotel revenues in Lalibela, panel data from eleven sample hotels in the town for the period of 2018–2023 were used. The research methodology includes descriptive and correlation analysis, as well as the construction of a fixed-effects model with cluster-robust standard errors. Econometric analysis demonstrates that the number of tourists and employees has a statistically significant positive impact on hotel revenue. During war, hotel revenues decline to a greater extent than just due to the reduction in tourist influx and forced staff layoffs. This may be due to lower room rates to attract tourists or a decrease in overnight stays during unrest. To revive Lalibela’s tourism sector, it is necessary to resolve the conflict through dialogue, strengthen security to increase tourist confidence, begin the restoration of cultural sites and the reconstruction of hotels, and seek support from international institutions.

Keywords:

tourism, cultural heritages, war, hotel revenue, Ethiopia, Lalibela, fixed effects model with cluster-robust standard errors

References:

1. Гришина Н.В., Костелянец С.В. (ред.). Туризм в Африке: проблемы и перспективы. М.: Институт Африки РАН, 2020.
2. Исмагилова Р.Н. Эфиопия: трудный путь к миру. Ученые записки Института Африки РАН. 2023. Т. 64. № 5. C. 75–92. https://doi.org/10.31132/2412-5717-2023-64-3-75-92
3. Клюев С.А., Семенова В.Н. Памятники эфиопского церковного зодчества района Гэральта: материалы полевых исследований осени 2020 г. в регионе Тыграй (Эфиопия). Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Востоковедение и африканистика. 2023. Т. 15. № 1. С. 177–202. https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu13.2023.111
4. Ключников М.И., Шипилов А.Ю. Этнополитические конфликты в Эфиопии на современном этапе. История и современность. 2024. № 3. С. 144–151. https://doi.org/10.30884/iis/2024.03.08
5. Мезенцев С.В., Копытцев И.С. Конфликт в Тиграе два года спустя: политические последствия для Эфиопии. Азия и Африка сегодня. 2025. № 5. С. 45–53. https://doi.org/10.31857/S0321507525050055
6. Abebe A. Impact of internal conflicts on tourism and hospitality industry in Ethiopia: The perspective of hotels and tour operators in Addis Ababa. Master’s thesis, College of Development Studies. Addis Ababa: Addis Ababa University, 2023. https://etd.aau.edu.et/handle/123456789/3860 (accessed: 29.06.2026)
7. Abeje A. Conflict-induced livelihood crises, family and intragroup disputes of tourism stakeholders in Ethiopia. Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift-Norwegian Journal of Geography. 2025. Vol. 79. № 2. Pp. 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2024.2444378

Show More

8. Adane T. The Effect of political conflict on tourism: The case of Bahir Dar City. Doctoral Dissertation. Bahir Dar: Bahir Dar University, 2021. http://ir.bdu.edu.et/handle/123456789/12052 (accessed: 29.06.2026)
9. Agung C.P., Inawati W.A., Anggita M. Hotel Revenue Performance: Roles of Labor, Liquidity, and Governance Mechanism. Jesya. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Ekonomi Syariah. 2024. Vol. 7. № 2. Pp. 1758–1770.
10. Ahmed M.J., Oumer A.A. The impacts of armed conflicts on the heritage tourism of Dessie and its environs, Northern Ethiopia. Journal of Heritage Tourism. 2023. Vol. 18. № 1. Pp. 101–120. https://doi.org/10.1080/1743873X.2022.2145899
11. Alamineh G.A. The Nexus between coronavirus and tourism: Tourism as peace sensitive industry. Cogent Arts and Humanities. 2022. Vol. 9. № 1. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311983.2021.2014110
12. Angrist J.D., Pischke J.S. Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist’s companion. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400829828
13. Asefa G.M., Teshome E., Taa B. Impacts of political instability on the tourism and hospitality businesses in Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia. Discover Sustainability. 2025. Vol. 6. 1470. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-02541-7
14. Balli F., Billah M., Chowdhury I. Impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on hospitality equity markets. Tourism Economics. 2023. Vol. 29. № 8. Pp. 2206–2215.
15. Baltagi B.H. Heteroskedasticity and Serial Correlation in the Error Component Model. In: Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. Cham: Springer, 2021. Pp. 109-147. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53953-5_5
16. Beldados A., Tribe T., Tribe C., Wondim M.G., Mamo D., Bekele L., Abey E. Effect of the 2020–2022 War in Northern Ethiopia on Archaeological and Historical Heritage and the Environmental Context in Amhara National Regional State. Journal of Ethiopian Studies. 2023. Vol. 59. № 1. Pp. 69–96.
17. Bogale S. The Impact of Political Unrest on Tourism Marketing Performance: The Case of Selected Tour Operators. Doctoral dissertation. Addis Ababa: St. Mary’s University, 2020.
18. Byemba A. Effects of armed conflicts on tourism Activities in Virunga National Park and its surroundings in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Doctoral Dissertation. Eldoret: University of Eldoret, 2024.
19. Cameron A.C., Miller D.L. A practitioner’s guide to cluster-robust inference. Journal of human resources. 2015. Vol. 50. № 2. Pp. 317–372. https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.50.2.317
20. Chiriko A.Y. Political violence and hotels: economic consequences and response strategies. Anatolia. 2021. Vol. 32. № 3. Pp. 419–429. https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.2021.1883078
21. Esubalew B. Religious tourism development: the case of Lalibela town, Amhara Region, Ethiopia. Unpublished Master’s Thesis. Addis Ababa: Addis Ababa University, 2013.
22. Folkers A.S., van Buiten B.A. The Rock-Hewn Churches of Lalibela. In: Modern Architecture in Africa: Practical Encounters with Intricate African Modernity. Cham: Springer, 2019. Pp. 286–298. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01075-1
23. Gebremeskel M. Impact of political instability on the tourism sector in Ethiopia. Helsinki: Haaga-Helia University of Applied Sciences, 2023. https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-2023112230896 (accessed: 20.06.2026)
24. Gujarati D.N., Porter D.C. Basic econometrics. New York: McGraw-Hill. 2009.
25. Hamadeh M, Bassil C. Terrorism, war, and volatility in tourist arrivals: The case of Lebanon. Tourism Analysis. 2017. Vol. 22. № 4. Pp. 537–550. https://doi.org/10.3727/108354217X15023805452086
26. Ivanov S., Gavrilina M., Webster C., Ralko V. Impacts of political instability on the tourism industry in Ukraine. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events. 2017. Vol. 9. № 1. Pp. 100–127. https://doi.org/10.1080/19407963.2016.1209677
27. Khalid U., Okafor L.E., Aziz N. Armed conflict, military expenditure and international tourism. Tourism Economics. 2020. Vol. 26. № 4. Pp. 555–577. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619851404
28. Kozlowski A.R. The war and tourism: Security issues and business opportunities in shadow of Russian war against Ukraine. Quality and Quantity. 2026. Vol. 60. Pp. 7927–7944. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-023-01762-0
29. Lin Y.X., Chen M.H., Lu L. The impact of international tourism on hotel sales performance: New proposals and evidence. Tourism Economics. 2022. Vol. 28. № 6. Pp. 1480–1498. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816621994438
30. Maksymenko A. Global crises and their impact on international hotels and restaurants. Scientific Journal of Polonia University. 2025. Vol. 68. № 1. Pp. 201–205.
31. Malkina M.Yu, Mulaw S.G. The impact of governance quality on human development: when politics drives the economy (the case of Ethiopia). Journal of Institutional Studies. 2025. Vol. 17. № 3. Pp. 50–66. https://doi.org/10.17835/2076-6297.2025.17.3.050-066
32. Neumayer E. The Impact of Political Violence on Tourism: Dynamic Cross-National Estimation: Dynamic Cross-National Estimation. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 2024. Vol. 48. №. 2. Pp. 259–281. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002703262358
33. Pizam A., Mansfeld Y. Tourism, crime and international security issues. Hoboken: Wiley. 1996.
34. Richard F.N., Golkarian S. Architectural conservation of the rock-hewn churches of Lalibela, Ethiopia: A study on preservation and socio-economic conservation. Amazonia Investiga. 2023. Vol. 12. № 67. Pp. 127–138. https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2023.67.07.12
35. Semaw M., Senishaw G., Alemu M. Challenges and future perspectives of cultural heritage for a sustainable tourism development in Ethiopia: Evidences from Rock Hewn Church of Lalibela. Journal of Hospitality Management and Tourism. 2022. Vol. 13. № 1. Pp. 1–17. https://doi.org/10.5897/JHMT2020.0300
36. Sulistyowati H. The influence of amount tourists and amount hotel on receiving hotel tax. International Journal of Social Science. 2021. Vol. 1. № 3. Pp. 259–264. https://doi.org/10.53625/ijss.v1i3.419
37. Sun L., Schuckert M., Hon A.H. Enhancing organizational structures for revenue management in small and medium-sized independent hotels: Evidence from China. International Journal of Hospitality Management. 2025. Vol. 127. Pp. 104–122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2025.104122
38. Taye B., Viles H., Orr S.A. Seasonality in Moisture Dynamics in the Walls of the rock-cut Churches in Lalibela, Ethiopia: Implications for Weathering. International Journal of Architectural Heritage. 2022. Vol. 18. № 2. Pp. 302–315. https://doi.org/10.1080/15583058.2022.2142699
39. Tewelde G. Examining the post-war heritage landscape: A comprehensive study of tourism development in rock hewn churches of Gherealta cluster, Tigrai, Ethiopia. Master’s thesis. Mekelle: Mekelle University, 2025. https://doi.org/10.82589/muir-516
40. Tkalec M., Žilić I. Does proximity to conflict affect tourism: Evidence from NATO bombing. PLoS one. 2021. Vol. 16. № 10. e0258195. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258195
41. Wooldridge J.M. Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. Cambridge: MIT press, 2001.
42. Yakovlev A., Balaeva O., Predvoditeleva M., Ershova N. Tourism industry in a ‘new reality’ and regional development opportunities: the case of Russia. Area Development and Policy. 2023. Vol. 8. № 3. Pp. 321–337. https://doi.org/10.1080/23792949.2022.2127414
43. Yap G., Saha S. Do political instability, terrorism, and corruption have deterring effects on tourism development even in the presence of UNESCO heritage? A cross-country panel estimate. Tourism Analysis. 2013. Vol. 18. № 5. Pp. 587–599. https://doi.org/10.3727/108354213X13782245307911

Received:
Revised:
Accepted:

For citation:

Full Text Article (ENG )