Transformation of the Ethiopian Political Elite and the Armed Conflict in Tigray: from Driving Predecessors out to De-Escalation? – JOURNAL OF THE INSTITUTE FOR AFRICAN STUDIES

Author:

Ivan Loshkariov, Ivan Kopytsev

Abstract:

In the article the authors consider elite dimension of the conflict in Tigray. Conducting the analysis of intra-elite processes allows both to find out the roots and to estimate the consequences of the most fast-moving conflict in the Horn of Africa. The research consists of five conceptual parts, which are preluded by a short description of the run of events. In the first part the conflict potential which takes its roots in 1994-2018 is explained. It starts with the basic notion that ethnic lines predetermine formation of elites in Ethiopia. Then the study shows that one of the main causes for the dispute which has severely divided political elites was the hegemony of the TPLF in government institutions. The second part refers to the transit of power. Here the point under consideration is redistribution of resources and particular strategies adopted by polarized elites. The analysis demonstrates that Abiy Ahmed and his allies did their best to deprive the TPLF leaders of power and economic resources. The TPLF resorted to ethnic mobilization while their rivals tried to break the unity of Tigrayans through stressing the existence of a class conflict. The third and the fourth chapters focus on the investigation of federal elites’ and «tigrayan clan’s» current positions respectively. In conclusion, the authors structure their findings and estimate the perspectives of inter-elites consensus. The research provides three important conclusions. Firstly, the roots of the conflict led to the formation of «action-response» cycles which was the basis for a rapid development and escalation. Secondly, the ongoing war even consolidates ruling elites in their fear of the TPLF. Finally, de-escalation and negotiations may become possible amid internal disputes in the Prosperity Party.

Keywords:

Ethiopia, Tigray, elites, conflict, TPLF, Abiy Ahmed, Prosperity Party

DOI:

10.31132/2412-5717-2021-57-4-87-101

References:

1. Alemayehu G.M. A Rejoinder to Seyoum Mesfin‘s Call to Arms to the People of Tigray. https://ecadforum.com/2018/02/04/a-rejoinder-to-seyoum-mesfins-call-to-arms-to-the-people-of-tigray/ (accessed 23.08.2021)
2. Alemayehu G.M. The Glorious Rise of the People of Tigray and Inglorious Fall of the TPLF in Ethiopia! https://ecadforum.com/2020/08/03/the-glorious-rise-of-the-people-of-tigray-and-inglorious-fall-of-the-tplf-in-ethiopia/ (accessed 23.08.2021)
3. Antoniu Gutterish s obespokoennost’yu sledit za razvitiem sobytii v efiopskom Tigrae. (Antonio Guterres is monitoring the situation in Ethiopian Tigray with grave concern). https://news.un.org/ru/ story/2021/07/1405902 (accessed 21.08.2021)
4. Arriola L.R., Lyons T. Ethiopia: The 100% Election. Journal of Democracy. 2016, vol. 27, issue 1, pp.76–88. DOI: 10.1353/jod.2016.0011.
5. Ashin Gennadii. Elitologiya: istoriya, teoriya, sovremennost’ (Elitology: history, theory, future). Moscow. MGIMO-Universitet. 2010. 600 p. ISBN 978-5-9228-0582-7.
6. Birara A. Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s Organized Plunder Funds Ethiopia’s Destabilization. https://borkena.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Ethiopia-politics-Tigray-People’s-Liberation-Front’s-Organized-Plunder-Funds-Ethiopia’s-Destabilization-final.pdf (accessed 23.08.2021)
7. De Waal A. The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa: Money, War and the Business of Power. Malden, Mass.: Polity Press. 2015. 267 р. ISBN 9780745695587.

8. Ethiopia: Abiy hails Tigray victory as region’s leader vows to fight back. https://www.africanews. com/2020/11/30/ethiopia-abiy-hails-tigray-victory-as-region-s-leader-vows-to-fight-back/ (accessed 21.08.2021)
9. Extra – Situation Report EEPA HORN № 190. https://martinplaut.com/2021/07/21/extra-situation-report-eepa-horn-no-190-21-july-2021/ (accessed 21.08.2021)
10. Fisher J., Gebrewahd M.T. «Game over»? Abiy Ahmed, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front and Ethiopia’s political crisis. African Affairs. 2019. vol. 118, issue 470, pp. 194–206. DOI: 10.1093/ afraf/ady056.
11. Fituni L.L. Religion, elites and sanctions in northeast Africa: regional impacts of superpower messianism. Politics and Religion Journal. 2021, vol.15, № 1, pp. 27–48.
12. Gebregziabher T.N. Ideology and power in TPLF’s Ethiopia: A historic reversal in the making? African Affairs. 2019. vol. 118, issue 472, pp. 463–484. DOI: 10.1093/afraf/adz005.
13. Getachew Reda’s Twitter account. https://twitter.com/reda_getachew/status/142065538564461 7729 (accessed 23.08.2021)
14. Habrieva Taliya. otv. red. Konstitutsii gosudarstv Afriki i Okeanii. (Constitutions of African and Oceanian states) Moscow. Institut zakonodatel’stva i sravnitel’nogo pravovedeniya pri Pravitel’stve Rossiiskoi Federatsii. 2018, vol. 2, 956 p. ISBN 978-5-9516-0833-8.
15. Hagmann T., Abbink J. Twenty years of revolutionary democratic Ethiopia, 1991 to 2011. Journal of Eastern African Studies. 2011, vol. 5, issue 4, pp. 579–595. DOI: 10.1080/17531055. 2011.642515.
16. Higley J., Burton M. Elite foundations of liberal democracy. Lanham. Rowman& Littlefield Publishers. 2006. 238 p. ISBN 0742553604.
17. In Ethiopia’s civil war, Tigrayan forces take the offensive. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/07/31/in-ethiopias-civil-war-tigrayan-forces-take-the-offensive (accessed 23.08.2021)
18. Ismagilova Roza. Efiopiya. Etnichnost’ i samoopredelenie sidama (Sidama of Ethiopia: Ethnicity and self-determination). Aziya i Afrika segodnya. 2021. № 6, p. 50–56. DOI: 10.31857/S032 150750015265-3.
19. Ismagilova Roza. Efiopiya: osobennosti federalizma (Ethiopia: the Peculiarities of the Federalism). Moscow. Institut Afriki RAN. 2018. 544 p. ISBN 978-5-91298-196-8.
20. Kosuhin Nikolay. Afrika: politizatsiya etnichnosti (Africa: Politicized of Ethnicity). Vestnik RUDN. 2006. № 1, p. 100–108.
21. Loshkarev Ivan, Kopyttsev Ivan. «Revolyutsiya oromo» i problemy mezhetnicheskogo balansa v Efiopii na sovremennom etape (1991–2020 gg.) (Revolution of the Oromo and the problem of inter-ethnic balance in Ethiopia at the current stage (1991-2020)). Vestnik BGU. 2020. № 3, p. 89–98. DOI: 10.22281/2413-9912-2020-04-03-89-98.
22. Manek N. Can Abiy Ahmed Save Ethiopia? URL: https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/04/04/can-abiy-ahmed-save-ethiopia/ (accessed 22.08.2021)
23. Muluken G. Let’s help our Tigray Ethiopian People to get rid off TPLF! https://ecadforum.com/ 2018/08/14/lets-help-our-tigray-ethiopian-people-to-get-rid-off-tplf/ (accessed 23.08.2021)
24. News Alert: Unprecedented Move by PM Abiy Sees New Leadership in Entire Security Sector, Foreign Ministry. https://addisstandard.com/news-alert-unprecedented-move-by-pm-abiy-sees-new-leadership-in-entire-security-sector-foreign-ministry/ (accessed 23.08.2021)
25. News: ODP Concludes Conference, Elects Nine Crucial Members of Its Executive Committee. See Who is Who. https://addisstandard.com/news-odp-concludes-conference-elects-nine-crucial-members-executive-committee-see/ (accessed 23.08.2021)
26. Peddling Hate and Division: Tigray People’s Liberation Front Vocation. https://ecadforum.com/ 2016/09/16/peddling-hate-and-division-tplf/ (accessed 23.08.2021)
27. Plaut M. Understanding Eritrea: Inside Africa’s Most Repressive State. New York. Oxford University Press. 2016. 243 p. ISBN 9780190669591.
28. Prosperity Party By-Laws. https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/PP-bylaws-2.pdf (accessed 23.08.2021)
29. Scott J. Modes of power and the re-conceptualization of elites. The Sociological Review. 2008. vol. 1, issue 3, pp. 25–43. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-954X.2008.00760.x.
30. TDP Says TPLF Leadership Dreaming to Lead Luxurious Life, Not Benefit Tigray People. https://www.ena.et/en/?p=18343 (accessed 23.08.2021)
31. Terrefe B. Urban layers of political rupture: the «new» politics of Addis Ababa’s megaprojects. Journal of Eastern African Studies. 2020, vol. 14, issue 3, pp. 375–395. DOI: 10.1080/1753 1055.2020.1774705.
32. The Council of Ministers membership. https://www.pmo.gov.et/council/ (accessed: 23.08.2021)
33. Tigray Members of Nat’l Defense Force Condemn Treasonous Act of TPLF. https://www.ena.et/ en/?p=18822 (accessed 23.08.2021)
34. TPLF Official Statement on the Occasion of the 45th Anniversary of the Launching of the Armed Struggle of the People of Tigray. http://aigaforum.com/current-issue/tplf-statement-lekatit11-2020-english.htm (accessed 23.08.2021)
35. TPLF’s Minority Ethnic Monopoly of the Armed forces in Ethiopia. https://ethioreference.com/ amharic/Revised_Ethnic_Divesity_in_The_Ethiopian_Armed_Forces.pdf (accessed 22.08.2021)
36. Walsh D. «I Didn’t Expect to Make It Back Alive»: An Interview With Tigray’s Leader. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/03/world/africa/tigray-leader-interview-ethiopia.html (accessed 23.08.2021)
37. Worku A. Lemma’s disunity drug. https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2019/12/17/lemmas-disu-nity-drug/ (accessed 23.08.2021)
38. Ylönen A. From demonisation to rapprochement: Abiy Ahmed’s early reforms and implications of the coming together of Ethiopia and Eritrea. Global Change, Peace & Security. 2019, vol. 31, issue 3, pp. 341–349. DOI: 10.1080/14781158.2019.1546685.
39. Young J. Peasants and Revolution in Ethiopia: Tigray 1975–1989. Burnaby. Simon Fraser University. 1994. 437 p. ISBN 0-612-06875-7.

Full Article